Thursday, June 30, 2011

China High Speed ​​Rail project is not only controversial for 21 years

High Speed ​​Rail would like to make money, not easy. China has operations in Beijing and Tianjin, Wuhan-Guangzhou, Zhengzhou-Xi'an, Nanjing, Shanghai-Hangzhou high-wire 5, at least now see the railway authorities did not disclose the operations of the authority of the data, but high iron low attendance, the loss is not serious What is the secret. Upcoming opening of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail as the world's longest high-wire mileage, was overstating the great expectations, it seems that people are waiting for Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail "dark horse", so from time to time to put the world on Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail The only high-wire a profitable Tokaido Shinkansen in Japan for comparison. Now that the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail in the future to how much profit, too early, but seriously think about from the Tokaido Shinkansen in Japan to learn something, always useful.

Tokaido profit model "can not be copied"?

Japan Tokaido Shinkansen high-speed rail in the history of the world seems to have become unable to copy the example: the world's first built using high-speed rail; operating 46 years without incident, "incredible"; even more amazing is that in 1964 the opening and operation, the first three years that began in 1966 profit, to recover the full investment on the seventh year, 10-year cumulative profit of 660 billion yen.

High Speed ​​Rail profits simply become a "myth", even from the history of the world's high-speed rail can be said that Japan's Tokaido Shinkansen "can not be copied." Currently high-speed rail operators around the world nearly 1.4 million km, located in China, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, 17 countries and regions become increasingly prairie fire, but the French high-speed rail, and many other high-speed rail are in huge losses, even in the In 1995 the French railway companies to freeze wages because of financial difficulties, causing workers to strike for three weeks. Chinese iron industry started late, rapid progress, but has been in operation for five high-wire can not escape the fate of heavy losses. Even in Japan, the Tokaido Shinkansen built after the Sanyo Shinkansen, Tohoku Shinkansen, Joetsu Shinkansen, Hokuriku Shinkansen Kyushu Shinkansen, also at a loss.

Tokaido Shinkansen can achieve outstanding results, there is one important reason, it is taken in all operations are focusing on improving the attendance and the means to start. Beginning operations, the daily passenger traffic only 6 million people, 10 years after 300,000 people per day, is now shipped off 360,000 daily passengers, 120 million people in traffic, equivalent to 10 highway transportation volume.

The reason why loss of attendance "is always a pain."

China has been operating five reason why the loss of high-speed rail, attendance "is always a pain," the Chinese people, but fewer people take high-speed rail, which is closely related to China's social development status, Tongji University and the Urban Mass Transit Railway Institute Professor Sun Zhang said, "Although China's high-speed rail is already in the world, but our per capita GDP ranked 100 in the world outside." China's current high-speed rail a lot of people think it is still expensive. The per capita annual statistics on the train can be seen, the Chinese tourists have yet to be high-speed rail to cultivate: the 2009 National rail passenger sent 1.525 billion people, equivalent to an average of every Chinese person more than once a year ride the train; some countries average train of dozens of people, the Japanese average 80 times by train.

In this sense, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail is far from being "robbed from the hands of civil aviation passenger traffic," so simple, but to wait for a long period of economic and social development, "not from others grab the cake, but their big cake of problems . "road repair, the car, the most practical question is to improve attendance. Implementation of 300 km Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail and 250 km, "two-speed" mixed run, full fare up from the lowest 410 yuan to 1750 yuan, is to attract more people to take as much as possible high-speed rail travel.

Speed ​​down economy

May be able to secure a win-win to save money

Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail design speed of 380 km, but the official operating speed of only 300 km and 250 km two modes, which is "wasted" or "wise choice"? Perhaps from the Tokaido Shinkansen can also learn something. Tokaido Shinkansen entire 515.4 km, the beginning of operation, the travel time from Tokyo to Osaka, from 6 hours and 30 minutes to 4 hours, when the speed is 210 km; then after a few speed, speed is 270 km, but also , the current travel time is 2 hours and 25 minutes.

Rest of the world is not the high-speed railway to 320 km above the open, because that would be a security risk, and higher costs. July 1, the Shanghai-Nanjing, Zhengzhou-Xi'an, Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rail a top speed from 350 km to 300 km, only a short distance of the Beijing-Tianjin, Shanghai-Hangzhou high-speed rail is still open to 250 km. Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail to open up to 300 km, but also to help run the arrangement, the Ministry of Railways Hu Yadong, vice minister explained: "the speed of vehicles in the same line, the same interval at different speeds, the speed difference is bound to produce. Climbing avoid too much will affect the line running ability and speed. "The measure, compared to 300 kilometers per hour moving car to moving car speed of 350 km and 250 km per hour EMU Mixed, efficiency is reduced by 20 percent.

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